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Polymarket Trading Bot Framework Shifts Focus from Prediction to Fair Value

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A developer outlines a framework for building quantitative trading bots on the Polymarket prediction platform. The approach distinguishes between generating a probability forecast for an event and identifying executable trading opportunities based on market price discrepancies. The system emphasizes model calibration, where predicted probabilities should match real-world outcome frequencies over many events. It requires careful avoidance of data leakage by using only information available at the time of each forecast. The final trading decision incorporates the forecasted probability, executable market price, transaction costs, and slippage.

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