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AI Trading Bot Nails Price Range on UMC Stock But Gets Direction Wrong

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An AI trading agent called 'Afu', running on the open-source DuDuClaw platform, predicted that United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) shares would rise on September 25 but the stock instead fell 3.75% to close at NT$154. Despite the wrong directional call, UMC's closing price landed squarely within the agent's predicted range of NT$150–158, highlighting a flaw in how the system compresses multi-stage trading logic into a single direction field. Afu's calibration score for the trade came in negative (RPSS: -0.4625), meaning the prediction performed worse than a model that assigns equal probability to all outcomes. Separately, the agent's correctly-called prediction on ETF 00919 went unscored because no order was placed, while the incorrect UMC prediction entered the scorecard — a structural quirk of the system. The agent's total portfolio stood at NT$2,234 against an initial NT$2,000 principal, reflecting an 11.7% gain on Day 33 of the experiment.

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