AI Reshapes Software Hiring, Hitting Entry-Level Developers Hardest

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Software developer employment has not collapsed, but hiring is shifting toward senior and AI-related roles. US software job postings remain well below their February 2020 level yet have risen roughly 15% since early 2025, with most of the gain in senior positions. Research from Stanford economists using ADP payroll data finds employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs is about 19% below its expected trend, mainly through fewer hires rather than layoffs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects 10% growth for software developers over the next decade, while the narrower computer programmer role is expected to decline. Analysts continue to debate how strongly AI is driving these changes.

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