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AI Model Raises Mahomes' Odds of Surpassing Brady to 47% in 2026 Update

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A developer running an annual AI-driven analysis has updated his assessment of Patrick Mahomes' chances of surpassing Tom Brady as the greatest NFL quarterback, raising the probability from 30% to 47%. The updated model uses OpenAI's Codex system and incorporates data through September 14, 2026, covering Mahomes' completed 2025 season and injury recovery. Mahomes finished 2025 with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and an 89.6 passer rating across 14 games, while the Chiefs went 6–11. A significant new variable is a December 2025 ACL and LCL knee injury, though Mahomes was cleared to full participation and confirmed as the starter for Kansas City's 2026 season opener against Denver. Team changes including the return of Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator and Travis Kelce, alongside new additions, introduce both optimism and uncertainty into future projections.

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