Why Programmers May Be More Vulnerable to AI Replacement Than Truck Drivers

A tech industry observer argues that software engineering is uniquely exposed to AI automation because both its inputs and outputs are text, making it a natural fit for large language models. An informal six-month analysis across nine companies suggests AI agents can complete over 70% of daily tasks performed by junior frontend and backend developers without human input. High-profile layoffs at Snap and Atlassian, where AI-generated code now accounts for a significant share of output, illustrate how companies are already acting on this shift. Unlike professions tied to physical environments or human relationships — such as plumbing, medicine, or management — programming lacks a barrier that AI cannot readily cross. The author contends that engineers are no longer competing with AI on quality but on cost, a competition they are currently losing.