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Why Multiplying Step Success Rates Reveals True Workflow Reliability

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A developer has built a free, browser-based calculator that computes the true end-to-end reliability of automated workflows by multiplying per-step success rates rather than averaging them. The tool addresses a common misconception: a seven-step workflow where each step succeeds 85% of the time yields only a 32% fully correct end-to-end rate, not 85%. Even a realistic workflow with steps averaging around 95.8% success can produce an actual combined reliability of just 77.2%. The calculator runs entirely locally, requires no account or email, and supports up to 30 workflow steps. The author emphasizes the tool is a diagnostic aid to identify fragile steps — particularly those with low success rates tied to high-cost outcomes — rather than a precise production forecast.

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Why Multiplying Step Success Rates Reveals True Workflow Reliability · ShortSingh