Two AI Labs Set to Control Most of Global Compute by 2028, Analyst Warns

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SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel, speaking on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast, argues that OpenAI and Anthropic are on track to absorb 40–50% of all new global computing capacity added in 2027, rising to 70–80% by 2028. Both companies are projected to cross into profitability in 2026, with Anthropic reaching revenue of up to $50 million per megawatt of compute — a sharp reversal from negative gross margins just a year earlier. Global AI infrastructure capital expenditure is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 and surpass $2 trillion by 2028, driven largely by the two labs' contracted demand. Supply chain bottlenecks — from ASML lithography machines to power turbines — are intensifying as upstream manufacturers struggle to keep pace with accelerating demand. Patel notes that regulatory restrictions on model releases and data center construction could cap per-megawatt revenue growth, but also risk tightening supply and pushing compute prices even higher.

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