Study Finds Trump's Posts Correlate With Market Moves But Cannot Predict Direction

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A quantitative study analyzing over 8,300 of Trump's social media posts from January 2025 onward examined whether his statements reliably move financial markets in predictable ways. Researcher Koral Zakai used a large language model to classify which financial instruments each post referenced, then measured subsequent price and volume changes. While initial results appeared statistically significant — with dozens of cells flagging as meaningful — each finding collapsed after correcting for methodological errors such as duplicate event counting, timezone mismatches, and flawed ticker-matching logic. For example, 93% of posts flagged as mentions of Intel the company actually referred to intelligence agencies, and Trump's habitual 'DJT' sign-off was misread as references to his own listed stock. The conclusion: market volatility following Trump's posts is real and measurable, but the directional signal — the part that would matter for trading — performs no better than a coin flip.

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