Study Finds Five Repeatable Pricing Biases in Polymarket Sports Prediction Markets

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An independent analyst examined 847 resolved sports markets on Polymarket between January 2023 and February 2024, covering tennis, NFL, NBA, soccer, and golf. The research identified five consistent biases: overweighting recent performance, overestimating favorites, undervaluing injury recovery, missing roster volatility, and mispricing large-field tournaments. In tennis alone, players who had recently won a tournament were priced 8.2 percentage points higher on average than Elo-based models justified. The analyst cross-referenced Polymarket odds against closing lines from over 15 traditional sportsbooks to isolate where crowd-sourced probabilities diverged from professional oddsmakers. The findings challenge the widely held view that prediction markets reliably reflect the 'wisdom of crowds,' suggesting the gaps between market prices and actual outcomes follow structured, exploitable patterns.

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