Simulation Shows Supply Chain Cuts Only Stop Wars Under Specific Conditions

A developer created a mathematical simulation to test whether cutting critical supply chains can halt a military conflict. The model pits stockpile depletion against a target's ability to find substitutes or bypass sanctions. Success depends heavily on how easily the targeted input can be replaced, not just the severity of the supply cut. The simulation found that if substitutes are readily available, even severe restrictions may fail to stop a war machine. Each layer of enforcement oversight also reduces the effective window for sanctions to work.