Prediction Markets Show No Edge Over Polls in Recent Midterm Races

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A Show HN post examined whether prediction markets outperformed traditional forecasting during the midterm elections. The author compared market odds against polling and Nate Silver's FLIPR model. In close races and those where polls shifted, the markets offered no clear advantage over poll-based models. The author questioned whether this lack of edge was widely recognized. The post also suggested that prediction markets should be taxed as entertainment, citing their heavy advertising.

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