Prediction Markets and Polls Largely Aligned in 2026 Midterm Cycle, With Some Misses

Prediction markets and polling data largely converged by the close of the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle, according to CoinDesk's State of Crypto coverage. Both forecasting approaches, however, produced notable misses in their predictions. The article examines whether prediction markets accurately anticipated the midterm outcomes. The source material provided is brief, so further details on specific races or figures are not included here.