Original Turtle Trading Rules Lose 57.7% on 26-Market Backtest

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A backtest applied the original 2003 Turtle trading rules, unchanged, to Exness tick data from January 2020 to September 2026. On 11 markets, including forex pairs, gold, the S&P 500 and bitcoin, a $100,000 account fell to $62,136, a 37.9% loss with a 58.3% maximum drawdown. Expanding to 26 markets worsened the result, with the account ending at $42,299, down 57.7%. Long trades were profitable across every market group while short trades lost money in each group. Removing any single safety rule, such as the filter, unit limits or drawdown rule, made results worse, and none of the eight tested configurations produced a profit.

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