How well do player projections predict team wins? I froze MLB 2026 first, then checked

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Every spring there are plenty of "how many games will each team win" projections. Most of them build a forecast for each player and add the players up by team. I had long wondered how well that actually works. So I built one of my own and checked it against the 2026 MLB season. I froze the projections in a repository before looking at the results, so nothing could be adjusted afterwards.

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