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Football Prediction Model Hit 82.9% at 2026 World Cup but Found a Data Integrity Bug

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A football prediction model developed by Onside Arena correctly identified the winning favourite in 63 of 76 decisive matches at the 2026 World Cup, achieving an 82.9% accuracy rate. The model also called 20 of 24 knockout ties correctly, with notable misses including Brazil, Germany, and Colombia. While preparing a detailed post-tournament review, the team discovered that pre-match probabilities were never stored at prediction time, instead being recomputed on-demand after results had already landed. This introduced data leakage through an online calibration layer that had already processed the outcomes it was supposed to be predicting, making retrospective probability figures unreliable. The team has since pulled those figures from its public records pages and acknowledged that only the binary win/loss grading — not the confidence percentages — can be considered trustworthy.

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