Developer Builds Bot to Detect Crypto Breakouts on Polymarket Using TWAP Divergence

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A developer known as Soulcrancerdev has published research on building an automated trading bot for Polymarket's short-duration crypto prediction markets. The bot is designed to detect genuine price breakouts by comparing spot prices against Chainlink-computed time-weighted average prices (TWAPs) available in 30-second and 60-second lookback windows. Rather than reacting to raw price moves, the system evaluates momentum, TWAP divergence, and persistence across multiple observations to filter out short-lived price shocks. Polymarket's real-time data stream exposes order-book events, which the bot uses alongside TWAP data to assess liquidity conditions before flagging a breakout candidate. The core research question is whether a trader can identify statistically meaningful price acceleration before prediction-market probabilities fully adjust to the underlying move.

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