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Dev Outlines Strict Signal Contract for 5-Minute TWAP Binary Market Bot

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A developer has published a technical framework for a prediction bot designed to trade 5-minute TWAP-settled binary markets on Polymarket. The system defines a strict signal contract where the model's sole objective is estimating the probability that the official end-of-slot TWAP finishes above a frozen slot-open reference price. Inputs such as order book depth, CEX mid-prices, and existing position data are explicitly excluded from the signal to prevent hold-bias and momentum misuse. The engine separates the signal function, which estimates fair probability, from the execution function, which determines whether the market is offering sufficient edge to justify a trade. Time-awareness is built into the contract, with entry rules tightening as the 300-second slot progresses and a hard cutoff after which no new positions are opened.

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