Columbia professor simulates Strait of Hormuz closure using real oil trade data

A Columbia University supply chain professor built an interactive visualization tool simulating the global impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz, using real bilateral oil trade data from UN Comtrade. The project originated as a classroom exercise and evolved into a full research paper with a supporting web-based model. The simulation adapts the Eisenberg-Noe financial network model, treating countries as interconnected nodes where supply shocks propagate and deplete oil reserves. A key finding is that nations with no direct Hormuz exposure, such as France, can still face rapid reserve depletion as other countries reactively stockpile oil, driving up prices globally. The model also shows that price increases unfold sequentially rather than immediately, tracking the order in which national reserves run dry.