Bitcoin's Four-Year Halving Cycle Persists but ETFs Have Reshaped Its Dynamics

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Bitcoin surged to a record above $126,000 in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, before falling nearly 48 percent to around $64,963 by August 2026. The cycle's broad shape remained familiar, but its mechanics shifted significantly after U.S. spot ETFs launched, with institutional inflows absorbing over 10,000 BTC per week during much of the 2025 rally — far exceeding the roughly 450 BTC miners produce daily. Bitcoin also broke its 2021 all-time high before the 2024 halving occurred, a first, suggesting ETF-driven demand pulled forward price moves that previously followed the supply cut. When institutional flows reversed, the same regulated channels transmitted redemptions back into spot markets, contributing to the drawdown. Analysts conclude the halving cycle still exists as a supply event and behavioral coordination point, but Bitcoin's price is increasingly correlated with equities and institutional capital flows, making a prolonged supercycle unlikely.

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