Arbitrage monitor's one 2-cent gap vanishes after real Kalshi and Polymarket fees

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A read-only arbitrage monitor comparing Polymarket and Kalshi found a single 2-cent gross gap across three market pairs on October 25, 2026. Early builds used placeholder fees, which made every edge look negative and hid the real cost structure. Kalshi's recommended API host returned a 403 error from the test network, so the monitor had to switch to an alternate host that worked. Once fees were calculated using each venue's formula, which peaks near 50 cents per contract, the Miami temperature gap cost about 1.4 cents per contract instead of yielding profit. The monitor has no order-placement code and the author stresses the output is not financial advice.

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