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Analyst Claims UFC Betting Market Has Systematic Mispricings After 500-Fight Study

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A data analyst spent six months building a dataset of 500 UFC fights from January 2022 to June 2023, cross-referencing striking accuracy, takedown defense, fight duration patterns, and historical betting odds against actual outcomes. The study claims UFC sportsbooks systematically misprice certain underdog profiles, pricing fighters based on public perception and recent results rather than granular statistical analysis. The analyst cites Sean Strickland's +340 underdog victory over Dricus du Plessis at UFC 287 as a case study in market inefficiency. According to the findings, specific underdog profiles generate consistent positive ROI that would be unlikely if odds accurately reflected true win probabilities. The research draws on publicly available data from UFCStats.com alongside opening and closing lines from at least two major sportsbooks per fight.

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