Alice & Bob Estimates 23,000 Qubits Could Break RSA-2048, Pending Hardware Proof

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French quantum firm Alice & Bob estimates that Shor's algorithm could factor RSA-2048 in about 3.14 days using roughly 22,593 physical qubits on its cat-qubit architecture. The figure appeared in an IACR ePrint preprint posted October 28 and was announced by the company the following day. It is a sharp drop from the company's own earlier estimates of about 350,000 in 2023 and under 100,000 in 2024, and about 40 times lower than a 2025 Google Quantum AI estimate. The lower count relies on hardware-level suppression of bit-flip errors and more efficient error-correcting codes. The estimate assumes essentially no bit flips during computation, and if flips occur about hourly the requirement roughly doubles, while the paper remains unreviewed and describes a machine that has not been built.

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ProgrammingDEV Community ·

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ProgrammingDEV Community ·

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ProgrammingDEV Community ·

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