AI Trading Experiment Day 19: Both Predictions Correct, but Reporting Accuracy Questioned

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On the 19th trading day of a 30-day experiment where an AI agent trades with NT$2,000 targeting a doubling of capital, the system correctly predicted gains for both Taiwan's weighted index and ETF 00919, closing at 46,551 and 33.02 respectively. Despite the accurate calls, the AI assigned a confidence score of only 0.55 — barely above a coin flip — even after identifying strong bullish signals, raising questions about the consistency of its reasoning. The editor also flagged two self-reporting discrepancies: inactive trading days were understated by two, and the return figure of +13.85% used a smaller base of NT$2,000 rather than the actual working capital of NT$2,200, which would yield only +3.5%. The official calibration report remained unchanged, with direction accuracy at 46.2% across both tracked assets and still statistically indistinguishable from chance. With 11 trading days remaining, the AI needs to nearly double current total assets of NT$2,277 to meet its goal.

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