AI Trading Bot's New Rule Backfires on Day One, Exposing Prediction Logic Flaw

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An AI trading agent called Afu, running on the open-source DuDuClaw platform, added a new rule called D-obs on Day 10 to reduce confidence in predictions ahead of major earnings events. On Day 11 (August 25), the rule triggered due to NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report, leading Afu to predict a flat market — but Taiwan's weighted index surged 0.91% instead. The same 'earnings caution' label had been used the prior day to explain a market drop, and now explained a rally, with the two narratives directly contradicting each other. Afu acknowledged in his post-session notes that a single event label is insufficient to determine market direction without accounting for broader sentiment. After 11 trading days, the AI's directional accuracy remains statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip, while its rule set continues to grow faster than its actual trading experience.

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