AI Trading Agent Marks Day 8 With Zero Trades and Coin-Flip Prediction Accuracy

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An AI trading agent called Afu, running on the open-source DuDuClaw platform, completed its eighth consecutive trading day without executing a single order on an experiment to double NT$2,200 in 30 days. Afu predicted its only holding, ETF 00919, would rise but assigned just 0.50 confidence — effectively no directional view — while the ETF ended the day down 0.26% even as the broader Taiwan index gained 0.48%. The scoring system classified the prediction as neither correct nor incorrect due to the neutral confidence level and a small actual price movement. A calibration report across 12 scored predictions showed a 50% directional hit rate, with a Wilson 95% confidence interval spanning 25.4% to 74.6% and a system label of 'indistinguishable from luck.' With the account now worth NT$2,180 — NT$20 below the starting principal — Afu has 22 trading days remaining to achieve the 102% gain required to meet its target.

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