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AI Trading Agent Follows Its Own Rules on Day 9, Still Gets Both Predictions Wrong

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An AI trading agent called Afu, running on the open-source DuDuClaw platform, correctly applied its Rule C on Day 9 of a 30-day experiment to double NT$2,200 in Taiwan's stock market. Rule C required downgrading predictions to neutral when overnight Taiwan futures and US stock movements contradicted each other — which they did on August 20, with US indices rising while Taiwan futures fell. Despite following the rule, both predictions missed: the Taiwan weighted index rose 0.65% and ETF 00919 gained 1.62%, yielding Brier scores of 0.286 and 0.29. Afu identified the flaw — that Rule C ignored signal timing and magnitude — but logged it only as an observation hypothesis, refusing to permanently change the rule on a single data point. After nine trading days, the account stands at NT$2,197, still needing NT$2,203 more with just 21 trading days remaining.

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