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AI Stack's Profit Paradox: Infrastructure Earns Big While Model Makers Lose

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A chart published by Apollo's Torsten Slok reveals a striking inversion in AI industry margins, with semiconductor and equipment firms posting around 41% operating margins while model and application companies sit at roughly -59%. Unlike traditional software, where the customer-facing layer typically captures the most durable profit, AI's margin strength currently lies furthest from the end user. Bulls argue this mirrors early buildout phases of past technologies like cloud and fiber, where infrastructure investment preceded widespread adoption and monetization. Goldman Sachs projects global AI-related investment will surpass $1 trillion in 2026, suggesting the capex cycle is not yet showing signs of slowing. Oracle illustrates the financial strain this creates, reportedly carrying nearly $130 billion in debt and around $260 billion in lease commitments tied to AI infrastructure, alongside negative free cash flow.

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