AI Model Predicts Dutch Court Outcomes at 78% Accuracy After Fixing Data Leakage Flaw

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Researchers building an AI system for Dutch court outcome prediction discovered that 92% of raw legal texts contained the verdict verbatim, causing models to memorize answers rather than learn legal reasoning. To fix this, the team stripped outcome-announcing phrases from 609,715 cases, reducing residual leakage to just 0.1%. They trained a LightGBM classifier on the sanitized dataset, achieving 78.2% overall accuracy and a macro-F1 score of 77.1% across criminal, administrative, and civil law domains. The model withholds predictions when confidence falls below 55%, returning an 'insufficient certainty' response instead of guessing. The pipeline has been packaged as an open-source MCP server with a Triple-A audit rating, allowing AI assistants to query benchmarks and run leakage checks without an API key.

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