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AI Leaders' Bold Predictions Graded: Most Missed by Wide Margins

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A developer reviewed 18 dated AI predictions from 2024–2025 against real-world outcomes, finding most fell significantly short of what was promised. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's claim that AI would write 90% of code within six months and essentially all code within twelve months went unmet, with industry estimates in early 2026 ranging from 25–41%. Salesforce's Marc Benioff pledged one billion Agentforce deployments by end of 2025 but reported around 29,000 cumulative deals, later switching to a different metric entirely. Klarna's widely cited claim that AI replaced 700 human agents was effectively reversed when the company began rehiring staff in mid-2025, citing quality concerns. The author argues that AI forecasting lacks accountability — predictions are made loudly and with confidence, but deadlines pass without public reassessment or correction.

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