AI Is Cutting Entry-Level Tech Jobs, Not Senior Ones, Stanford Data Shows

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New data from Stanford and ADP suggests AI is not causing mass unemployment among developers, but is disproportionately affecting early-career workers. Employees aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations are seeing employment shrink by 3.8% annually, while less-exposed roles for the same age group continue to grow at 2%. Stanford researchers found a 16% relative employment decline for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed jobs after controlling for firm-level factors. The concern is that AI tools are automating the routine, bounded tasks — such as writing boilerplate code, fixing minor bugs, and drafting documentation — that traditionally served as on-the-job training for junior developers. By removing these entry-level stepping stones, the industry risks eliminating the career pathway that historically produced experienced senior engineers.

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