AI Infrastructure Spending Shifts From Cash Flows to Debt as Capex Surges

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Major tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have collectively grown capital expenditure from roughly $95 billion in 2020 to an estimated $490 billion through mid-2026, with projections exceeding $900 billion by 2028. JPMorgan analysts estimate cumulative AI data-center investment could reach $5.5 trillion through 2030, with some forecasts as high as $10 trillion. As spending outpaces operating cash flows, the Bank for International Settlements warned in a January 2026 bulletin that firms will increasingly rely on debt and private credit to finance the buildout. The BIS projects annual data-center spending could rise by $100–$225 billion over five years, lifting its share of GDP from 0.5% to as high as 1.3%. JPMorgan sees AI cloud and model providers reaching a combined revenue run rate of $1.6 trillion by end-2026, suggesting the investment cycle has real demand behind it — though financing costs are now a central factor in whether the economics hold.

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