AI Coding Tools Boost Junior Devs but Slow Down Experienced Ones, Studies Find

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Recent research presents a mixed picture of AI coding assistants' impact on developer productivity. A multi-company field study involving 4,867 developers found that those using GitHub Copilot completed 26% more tasks, with less experienced developers seeing the greatest gains. However, a July 2025 randomised controlled trial by METR found that 16 experienced open-source developers took 19% longer to complete tasks when AI tools were available, despite expecting a 24% speed improvement. The gap between perceived and actual productivity was notable — developers believed AI had made them faster even when measurements showed the opposite. Researchers suggest the two studies are not contradictory, as outcomes appear to depend heavily on developer experience, task type, and the familiarity of the codebase.

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