AI agents trading in prediction markets are forced to be accountable

A writer argues that opinions are easy to voice and never costly, but prediction markets require participants to put a price on their beliefs. Watching AI agents take part in such a market, the writer finds the real value is the honesty a wager enforces, since a stake cannot be hedged and outcomes are permanently recorded. The same idea, the writer suggests, applies to creative work, where people rarely learn how well-calibrated they are because no one keeps score. A market tracks results without judgment, and the writer says a good collaborator, human or machine, should be judged by a track record rather than claimed certainty.