18 Predictions on AI's Next Phase: Costs, China, and the Super App Race

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Tech writer Peter Yang, author of the Behind the Craft newsletter, has outlined 18 predictions about where the AI industry is heading based on interviews with AI leaders and market observation. A key theme is the unsustainable cost of running frontier AI models at API rates, with companies like Coinbase, Airbnb, and Pinterest already switching to cheaper Chinese open-source alternatives such as Qwen and Kimi. Yang argues that China's open-source AI strategy is gaining ground at US enterprises, while Beijing plans a $295 billion investment in domestic AI infrastructure. On the product side, he sees an AI 'super app' era emerging, with OpenAI's ChatGPT and Codex — boasting over 800 million weekly active users combined — best positioned to dominate knowledge work. Yang also warns that US restrictions on frontier model access could backfire, drawing a parallel to how China came to lead the global electric vehicle market.

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